A new study published by the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) projects a significant rise in uterine cancer cases and deaths across the United States by 2050, with Black women expected to be disproportionately affected.
Using population data and computer modelling, researchers at Columbia University suggest that uterine cancer cases will surge by over 50% among Black women by 2050, compared to a 30% increase among white women. Researchers anticipate that Black women’s mortality rate will triple compared to that of white women.
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“Like many cancers, uterine cancer is a disease of ageing,” said study co-author Dr Elena Elkin of Columbia’s Mailman School of Public Health. “Another major factor is the rise in overweight and obesity in the population.”
The study also attributes increasing cancer risk to declining hysterectomy rates. As fewer women undergo uterus-removal surgeries for conditions like fibroids and endometriosis, more are left at risk of developing the disease. While the overall five-year survival rate is about 81%, it drops sharply for more aggressive types, especially those that are diagnosed late.
Black women are already twice as likely as white women to die from uterine cancer and more likely to develop aggressive forms of the disease. The study highlights that these disparities are fuelled by delayed diagnoses, limited access to care, and suboptimal treatment.
Uterine cancer affected nearly 70,000 women in 2024, according to data from the National Cancer Institute (NCI). The disease has seen steady increases in incidence and mortality over the past three decades, with NCI data indicating a 2% annual rise in new cases between 2015 and 2019, the highest for any cancer among women during that period.
Currently, there is no routine screening test for uterine cancer. Most diagnoses occur after symptoms such as postmenopausal bleeding, pelvic pain, or unexplained weight loss appear.
However, the study found that if an effective screening test were introduced at age 55, it could substantially reduce future case rates. “We don’t yet have a test accurate enough to ensure maximum benefit and minimal harm,” Elkin noted.
