An international study has unveiled a new genetic tool that can predict whether a child is likely to become obese in adulthood, potentially transforming how the world tackles the growing obesity epidemic.
Published in Nature Medicine, the study introduces a polygenic risk score based on a simple blood sample that can identify at-risk children as early as five years old. The tool is reported to be twice as accurate as previous methods and may also help determine how effectively obese adults will respond to lifestyle interventions.
“This score allows us to flag obesity risk even before conventional risk factors appear,” said Dr. Roelof Smit, lead researcher from the University of Copenhagen. “Early intervention can have a profound impact.”
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The new score was developed using data from over five million individuals worldwide. Researchers identified thousands of small genetic variants that influence weight gain, appetite, and fat storage. These were combined into a “polygenic risk score,” which explained nearly 20% of an individual’s variation in body mass index (BMI).
The tool also evaluated how individuals with different genetic risk levels respond to lifestyle interventions. Interestingly, those at higher genetic risk were more responsive to diet and exercise but also more prone to weight gain if those interventions stopped.
However, the test performed significantly better for individuals of European ancestry than for those of African descent.
Obesity increases the risk of several chronic diseases, including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disorders, sleep apnoea, and even some cancers. According to the World Obesity Federation, more than half the world’s population may be overweight or obese by 2035. While lifestyle changes, medications, and surgeries offer some help, outcomes vary, and prevention remains key.
