Deep funding cuts and the potential dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) could result in over 14 million additional deaths worldwide by 2030, including 4.5 million children under the age of five, according to a new study published in The Lancet medical journal.
The research highlights the life-saving impact of USAID-funded global health programs, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, with a significant focus on African nations. Over the past two decades, these initiatives are estimated to have prevented more than 91 million deaths globally, 30 million of them in children.
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The Trump administration, which began slashing aid budgets shortly after taking office, has defended the move as part of a broader effort to reduce “wasteful spending. ” However, human rights experts and public health advocates warn that the consequences could be catastrophic.
“Our estimates show that, unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030,” the study notes.
Washington remains the world’s largest donor of humanitarian assistance, accounting for at least 38% of global contributions tracked by the United Nations. In 2024 alone, the U.S. disbursed $61 billion in foreign aid, more than half of it through USAID.
While the administration claims the restructuring will improve outcomes, global health researchers caution that defunding or dismantling USAID threatens decades of progress in reducing mortality, preventing disease, and strengthening health systems in vulnerable regions.
